LED lighting still takes time to monopolize the domestic market

With the past of the incandescent era, traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will usher in explosive growth. From a long-term development perspective, LED products may be the overlord in the future lighting market,” said Hou Yuxuan, a researcher in the investment industry's environmental protection industry. .

Good policy

"Planning" clearly pointed out that the traditional high-efficiency lighting will occupy 70% of the market share in the next five years, LED lighting will occupy 20%. At the same time, by 2015, all 60W incandescent lamps used in general lighting will be eliminated. This is enough for most companies to seize the enthusiasm of the LED market.

Sunshine Lighting (600261.SH) Dong Zhao Zhao Fanghua told this reporter that Sunshine Lighting is currently focusing on the development of two areas of LED and lighting. LED lighting sales revenue in 2012 nearly 400 million, compared to 6 times growth in 2011, accounting for more than 10% of the company's total revenue; 2013 target is 1 billion, 2.5 times in 2012, will account for 30% of company revenue .

Xiamen Tongshida Lighting Co., Ltd. also believes that from the perspective of internal competition in the industry, the introduction of relevant policies has greatly increased the technical barriers in the industry, and many small and medium-sized enterprises may gradually withdraw from the market.

The market structure adjustment that follows will allow the market's major needs to gradually concentrate on several competitive manufacturers.

Although related policies directly affect downstream applications, they are also good for upstream companies. A staff member of Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH) told this reporter that at present, the company's more than 100 MOCVD (key equipment for the production of LED epitaxial wafers) is almost fully open.

“One is to phase out incandescent lamps, the second is to gradually reduce the mercury content of fluorescent lamps, and the third is to increase the share of LED lighting. This is very positive for upstream companies.” China Microelectronics (600360.SH) Dr. Wang Xin told the reporter that the company mainly supplies power to downstream lamp factories. Due to changes in policies, it challenges the production methods, management methods, and technologies of low-end manufacturers. This is conducive to the continuous development of enterprises in the direction of scale and standardization. Ultimately, low-cost production companies are eliminated.

Hou Yuxuan also said that at present, local governments have vigorously promoted the popularity of LED lighting in order to complete the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction, encourage enterprises to apply them to transform public street lighting, public place lighting, government office building lighting and other public facilities lighting, LED lighting market gradually Open. From the price point of view, due to the excess capacity of the upstream LED chip manufacturing industry, the government to increase subsidies and other factors favorable, LED lighting prices will have a substantial reduction, and promote the popularization of the market.

"Domination" still takes time

But will the emerging LED dominate the domestic lighting market in the short term?

At present, the domestic energy-saving lighting industry mainly has two major markets: traditional high-efficiency lighting products and LED lighting. In the short term, the market for general lighting products such as incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps will be rapidly compressed, which is an opportunity for energy-saving lamps and LEDs. But who can laugh at the end, still suspense.

Qi Faxin, a senior analyst at SEMI China's LED industry, told reporters that the current energy-saving lamp seems to have more advantages.

His reason is that after decades of development, energy-saving lamps tend to be mature and stable in terms of cost, process, and performance. "Unless affected by raw material prices, there is little room for cost reduction (energy-saving lamps) and the performance has reached the limit," said Qi Faxin.

At present, the cost of an energy-saving lamp is within 1 US dollar, and LED lighting is around 4 US dollars. This gap determines that the energy-saving lamps will still occupy the "big head" of the domestic energy-saving lighting market in a short period of time.

The policy provides that the bottom line guarantee of 70% market share is its biggest driving force. Hou Yuxuan also believes that with the incandescent era, traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will usher in explosive growth.

At the same time, due to a series of support given in the national policy, the market is expected to be relatively optimistic about the LED market, LED step by step approaching traditional energy-saving lighting, also led to the closure of many traditional lighting companies in recent years. Therefore, it is more likely that LED will quickly occupy the lighting market.

Zhao Fanghua said that the implementation of the policy is also the key factor that determines the energy-saving lamp and LED who can finally laugh. "This is related to the elimination of incandescent lamps can not be implemented, the implementation in place, as well as the implementation of the speed problem." Zhao Fanghua said that if the switch is relatively fast, short-term may have a greater impact on energy-saving lamps, on the contrary is more conducive to LED.

This is because the price of energy-saving lamps tends to be stable, and emerging LED prices are still falling. If the price of the LED is controlled within twice the price of the energy-saving lamp, then it is entirely possible for the LED to replace the energy-saving lamp.

"We must look at the speed of LED's own cost reduction and whether it can compete with energy-saving lamps." Zhao Fanghua told reporters.

The production capacity is behind

"Planning" clearly pointed out that the LED lighting energy-saving industry to promote the average annual growth rate of about 30% in 2015 reached 450 billion yuan, of which 180 billion yuan of LED lighting applications.

Industry insiders worry that under the lure of a huge market, blind, low-level expansion will repeat the mistake of overcapacity.

During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's LED lighting energy-saving industry has grown at an average annual rate of more than 35%. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2010, there were more than 5,000 semiconductor lighting companies in China, of which about 1,000 were above-scale enterprises.

At the end of 2012, the Quality Supervision Bureau and the Bureau of Industry and Commerce investigated the LED lighting products, energy-saving lamps, road lighting, fire emergency lighting, and electric light sources across the country. The results showed that the LED lighting product pass rate was only 51%.

Hou Yuxuan believes that the LED downstream lighting market is already at the critical point of overcapacity. Although the industry reshuffling inflection point has arrived in the second half of 2012, due to favorable policies, the industry is very optimistic about the LED lighting market and most companies will continue to expand production capacity. However, the global economy was weak, LED lighting was blocked, and it was difficult to get better after the switch to domestic sales. Internal and external difficulties caused companies to fall into a situation that was in conflict with the favorable environment for industrial policies.

"Although LED lighting is a new generation of lighting technology, but in the industry, its technical content is even worse than energy-saving lamps." Qi Faxin said that now many domestic LED lighting are small and medium-sized enterprises "spell-fitting equipment", not much is their own things. He believes that the chip manufacturing technology upstream of LED and the packaging technology of the middle reaches are our short boards, while the downstream companies lack the market segmentation and differentiation. LED lighting is a system that enables companies to improve their competitiveness. It is nothing more than a breakthrough in technology design, product reliability and safety, and differentiation in market positioning.